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Itapirense vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Wesley
43' Event
Joaninha
78' Event
Alyson Motta

AI Match Summary

EC Sao Bernardo in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored EC Sao Bernardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Itapirense
15%
Draws
57%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • EC Sao Bernardo have won more games recently than Itapirense.
  • Model gives EC Sao Bernardo a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 12%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itapirense EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 5 13
Draws 7 9
Losses 21 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.09 1.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:3
Mar 15, 2025 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Itapirense
1:1
Jan 24, 2024 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:1
Jan 25, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Itapirense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itapirense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.55

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Joaninha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alyson Motta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.95

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itapirense 19 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itapirense EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EC Sao Bernardo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itapirense scored in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Defensive concern: EC Sao Bernardo conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

EC Sao Bernardo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itapirense VS EC Sao Bernardo
0.8 Goals Scored 1.63
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.38
60% Over 1.5 88%
60% Over 2.5 75%
20% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Itapirense

(Home)
21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1
Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0
Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
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EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)