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Itaqua vs Uniao Mogi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Itaqua Logo

Itaqua

1 - 0
FT
Uniao Mogi Logo

Uniao Mogi

Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Costa D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Itaqua
15%
Draws
32%
Uniao Mogi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itaqua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Uniao Mogi haven't matched Itaqua's recent run of results.
  • Itaqua are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Itaqua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Itaqua, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Itaqua have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Itaqua Clean Sheet 68%
Uniao Mogi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itaqua Uniao Mogi
Matches Played 16 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 7
Losses 2 15
Goals Scored 2.06 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs Uniao Mogi
1:0
Jul 11, 2026 Paulista B
Uniao Mogi vs Itaqua
1:4
Jun 20, 2026 Paulista B
Uniao Mogi vs Itaqua
2:1
May 17, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs Uniao Mogi
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itaqua Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Uniao Mogi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itaqua 86 / 100
Uniao Mogi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itaqua Uniao Mogi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itaqua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itaqua scored in 94% of their last 16 outings.

Defensive concern: Uniao Mogi conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Itaqua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Itaqua VS Uniao Mogi
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Itaqua

(Home)
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
18 Jul
Itaqua
1 : 0
Uniao Mogi
11 Jul
Uniao Mogi
1 : 4
Itaqua
04 Jul
Itaqua
3 : 0
Paulinia FU
Page 1 of 4

Uniao Mogi

(Away)
18 Jul
Itaqua
1 : 0
Uniao Mogi
11 Jul
Uniao Mogi
1 : 4
Itaqua
04 Jul
Maua FC
0 : 3
Uniao Mogi
27 Jun
Uniao Mogi
2 : 3
Maua FC
20 Jun
Uniao Mogi
2 : 1
Itaqua
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3