Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ituano vs Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Novelli Júnior, Itu
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Alencar
28'
Neto Berola
46'
Sub
Razera In: Bruno Mezenga
Out: Razera

AI Match Summary

Ferroviaria in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ferroviaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Ituano
22%
Draws
60%
Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Ferroviaria have won more games recently than Ituano.
  • Ferroviaria are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Ituano Clean Sheet 22%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ituano Ferroviaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Serie C
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:3
Apr 30, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Ituano
1:1
Apr 23, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
0:1
Jan 17, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:1
Mar 19, 2025 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ituano Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Xavier
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Albano
1 Goals
Assists Leader Denilson Chaves
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ituano 21 / 100
Ferroviaria 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ituano Ferroviaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ituano scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Ferroviaria has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Ituano stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ituano VS Ferroviaria
1 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ituano

(Home)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
12 Jul
Ituano
1 : 3
Ferroviaria
04 Jul
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Ituano
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
20 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Figueirense
Page 1 of 7

Ferroviaria

(Away)
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Ituano
1 : 3
Ferroviaria
04 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 1
SER Caxias do Sul
27 Jun
Itabaiana
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
21 Jun
Ferroviaria
2 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brusque1583421:1527
2Guarani1575328:1526
3Botafogo PB1581621:1625
4Internacional de Limeira1574418:1725
5Santa Cruz1573515:1124
6Paysandu PA1572623:2123
7Maringa FC1565428:2523
8Ferroviaria1565415:1223
9Ypiranga FC1563618:1921
10SER Caxias do Sul1556414:1221
11Floresta EC1556416:1521
12Amazonas1562715:2020
13Figueirense1555513:1820
14Ituano1554616:1719
15Volta Redonda1553711:1918
16Maranhao1546511:1418
17Itabaiana1545613:1817
18Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1536617:1715
19Anapolis1533913:1912
20Confianca153399:1512
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)