Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ituano vs Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2 Estádio Novelli Júnior, Itu
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Denilson Silva

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Ituano
20%
Draws
63%
Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ferroviaria lately — more wins on the board than Ituano.
  • 63% — that's where the model lands on Ferroviaria taking it.
  • Ferroviaria arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ferroviaria, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Ituano Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ituano Ferroviaria
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 11 13
Draws 7 10
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Serie C
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:3
Apr 30, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Ituano
1:1
Apr 23, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
0:1
Jan 17, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:1
Mar 19, 2025 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ituano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Denilson Silva
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ituano 16 / 100
Ferroviaria 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ituano Ferroviaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviaria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Ituano scored in 55% of their last 33 games.

Ferroviaria let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Solid form: Ituano remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ituano VS Ferroviaria
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ituano

(Home)
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
22 Aug
Ituano
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Aug
Volta Redonda
1 : 0
Ituano
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
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Ferroviaria

(Away)
27 Sept
Brusque
1 : 1
Ferroviaria
20 Sept
Ferroviaria
3 : 2
Brusque
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
05 Sept
Internacional de Limeira
3 : 3
Ferroviaria
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Votuporanguense 1
Juventus-SP 2
Ferroviaria 2
Ituano 1
Final
Juventus-SP 2
Ferroviaria 1