Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie C Estádio Novelli Júnior

Ituano

4 - 1

Maringa FC

Our Tip

Match Events

Sub

Lucas Wingert In: Wesley Borges

Out: Lucas Wingert

11'

Borges P. H.

19'

Nelsinho

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Ituano and Maringa FC finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ituano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%

Ituano

17%

Draws

70%

Maringa FC

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Maringa FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Ituano haven't matched Maringa FC's recent run of results.
Win probability leans Maringa FC's way, sitting at 70%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%

Ituano Clean Sheet 17%

Maringa FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ituano	Maringa FC
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	11	13
Draws	7	8
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	1	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie C

Ituano vs Maringa FC

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 1 - 3

4:1

Jun 1, 2025 Serie C

Maringa FC vs Ituano

Possession: 52% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Jul 17, 2016 Serie D

Maringa FC vs Ituano

Possession: 56% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Jun 12, 2016 Serie D

Ituano vs Maringa FC

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 4 - 3

4:0

Aug 31, 2014 Serie D

Maringa FC vs Ituano

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 1 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ituano Compare

Top Goalscorer Razera

2 Goals

Assists Leader Leo Coltro

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Maringa FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rafinha

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ituano 15 / 100

Maringa FC 77 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ituano Maringa FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ituano found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Maringa FC let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Ituano went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ituano VS Maringa FC

1 Goals Scored 1.63

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5

50% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional de Limeira	14	7	4	3	17:14	25
2	Brusque	14	7	3	4	20:15	24
3	Santa Cruz	14	7	3	4	15:10	24
4	Paysandu PA	14	7	2	5	22:19	23
5	Guarani	14	6	5	3	25:14	23
6	Botafogo PB	14	7	1	6	19:15	22
7	Maringa FC	14	6	4	4	27:24	22
8	Ferroviaria	14	6	4	4	15:12	22
9	SER Caxias do Sul	14	5	6	3	13:10	21
10	Floresta EC	14	5	5	4	15:14	20
11	Ituano	14	5	4	5	16:16	19
12	Ypiranga FC	14	5	3	6	17:19	18
13	Volta Redonda	14	5	3	6	10:15	18
14	Amazonas	14	5	2	7	13:19	17
15	Maranhao	14	4	5	5	11:14	17
16	Figueirense	14	4	5	5	12:18	17
17	Itabaiana	14	4	4	6	12:17	16
18	Barra FC (Santa Catarina)	14	3	6	5	17:16	15
19	Confianca	14	3	2	9	8:14	11
20	Anapolis	14	2	3	9	9:18	9