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Itumbiara vs Tupy FC

Brazil Brazil

Goiano 3 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Roniel
67' Event
da Silva Oliveira Y.
(Penalty)
76' Event
Luan

AI Match Summary

Itumbiara host Tupy FC in the Goiano 3 2024. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Itumbiara at 0.63 goals for, 3.38 against; Tupy FC at 1.13 for, 1.13 against. Head-to-head, Itumbiara have won 0 to Tupy FC's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 26, 2024, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 2.25, favoring Tupy FC. Tupy FC in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Itumbiara
6%
Draws
90%
Tupy FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tupy FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tupy FC demonstrates higher offensive output (1.13 avg goals) than Itumbiara (0.63 avg goals).
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Tupy FC.
  • Cup tournament structure in Goiano 3 2024 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Itumbiara Clean Sheet 10%
Tupy FC Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itumbiara Tupy FC
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 10 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 3.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 Goiano 3
Tupy FC vs Itumbiara
2:0
Oct 20, 2024 Goiano 3
Itumbiara vs Tupy FC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itumbiara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Tupy FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Roniel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itumbiara 10 / 100
Tupy FC 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itumbiara Tupy FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itumbiara scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Tupy FC let in goals in 69% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Itumbiara went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Tupy FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itumbiara VS Tupy FC
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
3.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Guanabara City2
Mineiros1
Rio Verde6
Uruacu2
Itumbiara3
Aparecida EC2
Bela Vista FC1
Tupy FC4
Semi-finals
Guanabara City0
Rio Verde6
Itumbiara1
Tupy FC5
Final
Rio Verde4
Tupy FC3