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Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ivory Coast play Burkina Faso in the African Nations Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ivory Coast averaged 1.72 goals scored and 0.66 conceded. Burkina Faso averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Ivory Coast won 3, Burkina Faso won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 6, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.65 for Ivory Coast and 1.09 for Burkina Faso. This points to a Ivory Coast double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Ivory Coast
15%
Draws
37%
Burkina Faso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ivory Coast

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Ivory Coast picked up more points recently compared to Burkina Faso.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.65 vs 1.09 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Ivory Coast Clean Sheet 22%
Burkina Faso Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivory Coast Burkina Faso
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 19 16
Draws 2 4
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.72 1.77
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso
3:0
Dec 28, 2024 African Nations Championship
Burkina Faso vs Ivory Coast
3:0
Dec 22, 2024 African Nations Championship
Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso
2:0
Nov 19, 2022 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Ivory Coast
2:1
Sep 4, 2022 African Nations Championship
Burkina Faso vs Ivory Coast
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ivory Coast Compare

Top Goalscorer Konate O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Burkina Faso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivory Coast 48 / 100
Burkina Faso 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivory Coast Burkina Faso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ivory Coast or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ivory Coast attacking → ← attacking Burkina Faso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ivory Coast scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Burkina Faso let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Ivory Coast went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Burkina Faso lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 52
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.43
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.43