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Iwata vs Toyama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2 League Yamaha Stadium, Iwata
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Ogawa K.
Assist: Furukawa M.
33'
Tanimoto S.
42'
Fujiwara K.

AI Match Summary

Toyama in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toyama.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Iwata
35%
Draws
34%
Toyama
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Iwata haven't matched Toyama's recent run of results.
  • Iwata are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Iwata Clean Sheet 15%
Toyama Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iwata Toyama
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 J2 League
Iwata vs Toyama
0:1
Aug 23, 2025 J2 League
Iwata vs Toyama
2:0
Mar 9, 2025 J2 League
Toyama vs Iwata
3:1
Aug 17, 2014 J2 League
Iwata vs Toyama
3:2
May 18, 2014 J2 League
Toyama vs Iwata
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iwata Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Toyama Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogawa K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iwata 35 / 100
Toyama 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iwata Toyama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iwata scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Iwata has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Toyama has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Iwata VS Toyama
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Iwata

(Home)
03 Nov
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2
Iwata
31 Oct
Iwata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
25 Oct
Iwaki
1 : 1
Iwata
21 Oct
Iwata
0 : 0
Oita Trinita
17 Oct
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1 : 1
Iwata
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Toyama

(Away)
03 Nov
Toyama
1 : 0
Vegalta Sendai
31 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 3
Toyama
25 Oct
Toyama
0 : 1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
21 Oct
Omiya Ardija
0 : 3
Toyama
17 Oct
Toyama
1 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albirex Niigata 15 9 2 4 22:24 29
2 Toyama 15 8 4 3 27:14 28
3 Yokohama FC 15 8 4 3 28:17 28
4 Omiya Ardija 15 7 6 2 27:18 27
5 Vegalta Sendai 15 8 3 4 23:14 27
6 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 15 7 5 3 24:16 26
7 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 15 7 2 6 21:19 23
8 Oita Trinita 15 5 7 3 18:12 22
9 Iwata 15 6 4 5 18:16 22
10 Shonan Bellmare 15 5 7 3 15:14 22
11 Iwaki 15 6 2 7 24:22 20
12 Sagan Tosu 15 6 2 7 15:17 20
13 Montedio Yamagata 15 6 1 8 14:14 19
14 Blaublitz 15 4 5 6 16:17 17
15 Tokushima 15 5 2 8 11:15 17
16 Fujieda MYFC 15 3 7 5 17:17 16
17 Vanraure 15 4 2 9 11:25 14
18 Tochigi City 15 3 3 9 21:28 12
19 Imabari 15 3 3 9 16:31 12
20 Kofu 15 3 3 9 11:29 12
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