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Jablonec vs Lugano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Thu, Nov 26, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jablonec host Lugano in the Conference League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Lugano have shipped 0.93 goals a game lately, while Jablonec have conceded 1.11 and scored 1.21. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.19 - 2.44) back Lugano to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Jablonec
20%
Draws
60%
Lugano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lugano come out ahead of Jablonec on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lugano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Jablonec Clean Sheet 10%
Lugano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jablonec Lugano
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 23
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 2
Goals Scored 1.21 2.9
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jablonec 10 / 100
Lugano 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jablonec Lugano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Jablonec scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Lugano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Jablonec went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jablonec VS Lugano
1.13 Goals Scored 3.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Jablonec

(Home)
05 Nov
Riga FC
1 : 1
Jablonec
31 Oct
Jablonec
0 : 5
Slavia Prague
25 Oct
Hradec Kralove
1 : 2
Jablonec
22 Oct
Jablonec
0 : 0
Brighton
18 Oct
Jablonec
2 : 3
Plzen
Page 1 of 6

Lugano

(Away)
05 Nov
Lugano
3 : 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris
01 Nov
Lugano
2 : 1
Basel
25 Oct
Thun
2 : 3
Lugano
22 Oct
Getafe
2 : 5
Lugano
18 Oct
Pully
0 : 4
Lugano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 3 3 0 0 11:4 9
2 Panathinaikos 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
3 Twente 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
4 Monaco 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
5 Brighton 3 2 1 0 5:0 7
6 Brann 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
7 FC Copenhagen 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
8 Univ. Craiova 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
9 Mjallby 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
10 St. Truiden 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
11 Ajax 3 2 0 1 9:3 6
12 Trabzonspor 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
13 Hajduk Split 3 2 0 1 3:2 6
14 Freiburg 3 2 0 1 4:5 6
15 Crvena zvezda 3 1 1 1 6:6 4
16 Atalanta 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
17 Braga 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
18 Gent 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
19 Riga FC 3 0 3 0 3:3 3
20 Thun 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
21 Borac Banja Luka 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
22 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
23 Jablonec 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
24 Aarhus 3 0 2 1 1:2 2
25 Nordsjaelland 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
26 KF Egnatia 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
27 Kairat Almaty 3 0 2 1 3:7 2
28 CSKA Sofia 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
29 Iberia 1999 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
30 Pafos 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
31 Getafe 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
32 Hearts 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
33 KuPS 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
34 Midtjylland 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
35 Inter Escaldes 3 0 0 3 2:7 0
36 FK Kauno Zalgiris 3 0 0 3 1:11 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)