Sport Picks

Croatia

3. HNL South

Urania Baska Voda

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jadran Luka Ploce play Urania Baska Voda in the 3. HNL South. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jadran Luka Ploce averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. Urania Baska Voda averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. In past meetings, Jadran Luka Ploce won 2, Urania Baska Voda won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 22, 2022 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Jadran Luka Ploce and 1.63 for Urania Baska Voda. This points to a Jadran Luka Ploce double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%

Jadran Luka Ploce

15%

Draws

30%

Urania Baska Voda

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jadran Luka Ploce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Jadran Luka Ploce picked up more points recently compared to Urania Baska Voda.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Jadran Luka Ploce Clean Sheet 14%

Urania Baska Voda Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Jadran Luka Ploce	Urania Baska Voda
Matches Played	44	30
Wins	25	10
Draws	5	2
Losses	14	18
Goals Scored	1.77	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.16	1.9

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2022 3. HNL South

Urania Baska Voda vs Jadran Luka Ploce

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

0:3

Nov 21, 2021 3. HNL South

Jadran Luka Ploce vs Urania Baska Voda

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

3:0

May 9, 2021 3. HNL South

Urania Baska Voda vs Jadran Luka Ploce

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Oct 24, 2020 3. HNL South

Jadran Luka Ploce vs Urania Baska Voda

Possession: 57% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jadran Luka Ploce 52 / 100

Urania Baska Voda 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Jadran Luka Ploce Urania Baska Voda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jadran Luka Ploce Win (1)

Secondary Pick Jadran Luka Ploce & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.1%

2.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jadran Luka Ploce attacking → ← attacking Urania Baska Voda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jadran Luka Ploce scored in 80% of their last 44 games.

Urania Baska Voda let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Jadran Luka Ploce went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Urania Baska Voda lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

80 Points in last 5 32

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran Luka Ploce	34	20	5	9	67:28	65
2	Hrvatski Vitez Posedarje	34	18	6	10	56:38	60
3	Hrvace	34	18	6	10	46:39	60
4	HNK Zadar	34	16	11	7	69:28	59
5	Neretva	34	16	7	11	50:36	55
6	RNK Split	34	15	7	12	52:40	52
7	NK Junak Sinj	34	16	4	14	49:46	52
8	Uskok Klis	34	15	6	13	51:54	51
9	Sloga Mravince	34	12	14	8	48:45	50
10	Primorac Biograd	34	14	6	14	60:56	48
11	Zagora	34	12	8	14	47:52	44
12	GOSK Dubrovnik	34	11	10	13	35:34	43
13	Zmaj Makarska	34	11	10	13	28:39	43
14	Neretvanac	34	10	8	16	40:53	38
15	Kamen Podbablje	34	9	10	15	37:51	37
16	Vodice	34	8	9	17	44:73	33
17	Urania Baska Voda	34	10	3	21	33:65	33
18	OSK Otok	34	6	8	20	48:83	26