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Jaen vs Baleares

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria, Jaén
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Siverio M.
61' Event
Cabello M.
Own Goal
90' Event
Alonso A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Jaen in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Jaen
20%
Draws
33%
Baleares
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jaen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Baleares at 1.76 per game, Jaen at 1.34.
  • Jaen are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Jaen, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Jaen Clean Sheet 15%
Baleares Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaen Baleares
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 16 16
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.34 1.76
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Baleares vs Jaen
1:2
May 24, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Jaen vs Baleares
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Siverio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Baleares Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaen 41 / 100
Baleares 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaen Baleares

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaen scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Baleares's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Jaen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jaen VS Baleares
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaen

(Home)
06 Aug
Jaen
1 : 2
Cordoba
01 Aug
Linares
0 : 2
Jaen
24 Jul
Cacereno
1 : 1
Jaen
31 May
Baleares
1 : 2
Jaen
24 May
Jaen
2 : 1
Baleares
Page 1 of 7

Baleares

(Away)
01 Aug
Baleares
4 : 1
Santanyi
25 Jul
Baleares
2 : 1
Mallorca B
31 May
Baleares
1 : 2
Jaen
24 May
Jaen
2 : 1
Baleares
17 May
Baleares
1 : 1
Coruxo FC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Alaves B 2
Jaen 3
Baleares 4
Coruxo FC 1
Deportiva Minera 0
CD Coria 1
Real Oviedo B 3
Tudelano 1
UD Logrones 4
Getafe B 1
San Sebastian Reyes 3
Alcoyano 1
UD Ourense 2
Reus FC Reddis 1
Conquense 1
Xerez CD 1
Aguilas FC 4
Utebo FC 2
UD Poblense 3
Numancia 1
Final
Jaen 4
Baleares 2
CD Coria 4
Real Oviedo B 0
UD Logrones 2
San Sebastian Reyes 1
UD Ourense 3
Conquense 0
Aguilas FC 2
UD Poblense 1