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Jagiellonia II vs Swit Mazowiecki

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jagiellonia II play Swit Mazowiecki in the III Liga - Group I 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jagiellonia II averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Swit Mazowiecki averaged 1.36 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Jagiellonia II won 3, Swit Mazowiecki won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Jagiellonia II and 1.63 for Swit Mazowiecki. This points to a Jagiellonia II double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Jagiellonia II
15%
Draws
34%
Swit Mazowiecki
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jagiellonia II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Jagiellonia II picked up more points recently compared to Swit Mazowiecki.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Jagiellonia II Clean Sheet 14%
Swit Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jagiellonia II Swit Mazowiecki
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.37 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.3 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Jagiellonia II vs Swit Mazowiecki
5:1
Sep 20, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Swit Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II
3:2
Nov 23, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Jagiellonia II vs Swit Mazowiecki
5:2
Aug 3, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Swit Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II
1:0
Mar 17, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Jagiellonia II vs Swit Mazowiecki
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jagiellonia II Compare

Top Goalscorer Bazdar S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Zalewski Z.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Swit Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Jampol A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jagiellonia II 49 / 100
Swit Mazowiecki 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jagiellonia II Swit Mazowiecki

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jagiellonia II or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jagiellonia II attacking → ← attacking Swit Mazowiecki

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jagiellonia II scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Swit Mazowiecki let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Jagiellonia II went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Swit Mazowiecki lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 31
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Legia II34273482:2984
2LKS Lomza34225777:3171
3Warta Sieradz34218564:3471
4Suwalki34205964:4365
5Troszyn341761175:4757
6Plock II341681056:5156
7Widzew Lodz II341731470:6454
8Jagiellonia II341471346:4549
9Tomaszow Mazowiecki341381364:5547
10Zabkovia Zabki341351672:6444
11Swit Mazowiecki341251751:6641
12MKS Mlawa341171655:5940
13Olimpia Elblag341081645:6138
14GKS Wikielec341071740:5437
15Bron Radom34991640:5736
16GKS Belchatow34971850:7634
17Wasilkow34742340:7925
18Znicz Biala Piska34432727:10315