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Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia in the Europa League. Ararat-Armenia go into this one as the clear favorite. Jagiellonia have averaged 1.72 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Ararat-Armenia's 1.79 scored and 1.04 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.20 - 1.00) back Ararat-Armenia to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Jagiellonia
15%
Draws
68%
Ararat-Armenia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ararat-Armenia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Ararat-Armenia average 1.79 goals a game right now, well clear of Jagiellonia's 1.72.
  • Model gives Ararat-Armenia a 68% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Jagiellonia Clean Sheet 20%
Ararat-Armenia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jagiellonia Ararat-Armenia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 17 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.72 1.79
Goals Conceded 1 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jagiellonia 28 / 100
Ararat-Armenia 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jagiellonia Ararat-Armenia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ararat-Armenia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Jagiellonia scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Ararat-Armenia has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Jagiellonia stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Ararat-Armenia registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jagiellonia VS Ararat-Armenia
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jagiellonia

(Home)
03 Oct
Jagiellonia
1 : 2
Polonia Warszawa
29 Sept
Jagiellonia
5 : 0
Suduva
20 Sept
Jagiellonia
1 : 3
Legia
16 Sept
Olympiacos Piraeus
2 : 1
Jagiellonia
11 Sept
Wisla
2 : 0
Jagiellonia
Page 1 of 6

Ararat-Armenia

(Away)
03 Oct
Ararat Yerevan
0 : 4
Ararat-Armenia
20 Sept
Shirak Gyumri
1 : 3
Ararat-Armenia
16 Sept
Ararat-Armenia
1 : 4
Sparta Prague
11 Sept
Ararat-Armenia
3 : 0
Syunik
05 Sept
Ararat Yerevan
0 : 1
Ararat-Armenia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
3 Sparta Prague 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Royale Union SG 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Ferencvaros 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 OFI Crete 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Olympiacos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 Omonia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
19 Din. Zagreb 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
20 H. Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
29 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
36 Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)