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Jaguare vs SAO Mateus Prediction & H2H Stats

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Campeonato Capixaba 2009
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Capixaba 2009 game between Jaguare and SAO Mateus finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Jaguare
15%
Draws
36%
SAO Mateus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaguare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jaguare come out ahead of SAO Mateus on wins alone.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Jaguare taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Jaguare Clean Sheet 20%
SAO Mateus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaguare SAO Mateus
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 6
Draws 12 4
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 1.17 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.3 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2010 Capixaba
Jaguare vs SAO Mateus
1:0
Mar 14, 2010 Capixaba
SAO Mateus vs Jaguare
0:0
Apr 4, 2009 Capixaba
SAO Mateus vs Jaguare
2:2
Feb 6, 2009 Capixaba
Jaguare vs SAO Mateus
1:1
Jan 29, 2006 Capixaba
Jaguare vs SAO Mateus
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaguare 85 / 100
SAO Mateus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaguare SAO Mateus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaguare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SAO Mateus let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Jaguare found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

SAO Mateus's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaguare VS SAO Mateus
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaguare

(Home)
23 Feb
Rio Branco ES
3 : 0
Jaguare
18 Feb
Jaguare
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
11 Feb
Real Noroeste
1 : 1
Jaguare
08 Feb
Jaguare
0 : 2
Rio Branco-VN
05 Feb
Porto Vitoria
3 : 1
Jaguare
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SAO Mateus

(Away)
26 Oct
CTE Colatina
0 : 3
SAO Mateus
19 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Linhares Futebol Clube
16 Oct
Pinheiros
5 : 0
SAO Mateus
03 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Vilavelhense
28 Sept
SAO Mateus
1 : 5
CTE Colatina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SAO Mateus 18 11 3 4 28:21 36
2 Rio Branco ES 18 8 7 3 35:21 31
3 Jaguare 18 9 3 6 30:25 30
4 Vilavelhense 18 8 4 6 29:27 28
5 Linhares Futebol Clube 18 8 3 7 18:19 27
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 18 6 4 8 26:24 22
7 Rio Bananal FC 18 6 3 9 22:26 21
8 GEL 18 6 2 10 24:33 20
9 Serra 18 5 4 9 32:39 19
10 Colatinense 18 5 3 10 25:34 18
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2009 (Play Offs)