Sport Picks
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tamaulipas, Tampico-Ciudad Madero 
Match Events
14'
14'
Yanez J.
25'
25'
Alvarez D.
28'
28'
Illescas F.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Jaiba Brava advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Jaiba Brava carry the better recent record into this one.
- Atletico La Paz are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Jaiba Brava have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Jaiba Brava, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Jaiba Brava have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaiba Brava | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:2
Apr 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
3:2
Feb 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaiba Brava Compare
Top Goalscorer Corona N.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Atletico La Paz Compare
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaiba Brava 10 / 100
Atletico La Paz 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaiba Brava Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Jaiba Brava found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).
Atletico La Paz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Jaiba Brava went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Jaiba Brava VS Atletico La Paz
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaiba Brava
(Home) 20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
30 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
2 : 0 Jaiba Brava
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
09 Aug
Jaiba Brava
3 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
26 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Piratas
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Atletico La Paz
(Away) 25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos 2
Atlante 2
Club Atletico Morelia 2
Zacatecas Mineros 3
Cancun 2
Tapatio 1
Atletico La Paz 1
Jaiba Brava 4
Semi-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos 2
Zacatecas Mineros 2
Cancun 2
Jaiba Brava 3
Final
Tepatitlan de Morelos 1
Jaiba Brava 0
