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Jalapa vs Ocotal

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2024/2025
Jalapa Logo

Jalapa

2 - 0
FT
Ocotal Logo

Ocotal

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Rosales O.
80' Event
Rosales O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2024/2025 game between Jalapa and Ocotal finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jalapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Jalapa
15%
Draws
36%
Ocotal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jalapa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Ocotal haven't matched Jalapa's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 20%
Ocotal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jalapa Ocotal
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 7 4
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 1.29 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.06 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2025 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Jalapa
2:0
Jan 25, 2025 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Ocotal
2:0
Oct 26, 2024 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Ocotal
3:0
Aug 19, 2024 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Jalapa
2:2
Apr 21, 2024 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Jalapa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosales O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Ocotal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jalapa 31 / 100
Ocotal 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jalapa Ocotal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jalapa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ocotal conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Jalapa scored in 68% of their last 34 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Ocotal's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jalapa VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jalapa

(Home)
20 Sept
Walter Ferreti
0 : 1
Jalapa
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 7

Ocotal

(Away)
30 Apr
Ocotal
0 : 2
Diriangen
27 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 1
Ocotal
17 Apr
Esteli
3 : 2
Ocotal
13 Apr
UNAN-Managua
4 : 0
Ocotal
07 Apr
Ocotal
2 : 0
Rancho Santana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 18 15 1 2 42:17 46
2 Managua FC 18 11 3 4 31:14 36
3 Diriangen 18 11 2 5 34:21 35
4 Walter Ferreti 18 6 5 7 19:17 23
5 Sport Sebaco 18 6 5 7 19:23 23
6 Matagalpa 18 5 6 7 25:30 21
7 UNAN-Managua 18 5 5 8 20:28 20
8 Jalapa 18 4 6 8 18:25 18
9 Rancho Santana 18 3 6 9 15:26 15
10 Ocotal 18 3 3 12 18:40 12
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)