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Jamaica vs Guadeloupe

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Jamaica Logo

Jamaica

2 - 1
FT
Guadeloupe Logo

Guadeloupe

Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Ambrose T.
32' Event
Ambrose T.
Assist: Cadiou N.
41' Event
Bailey L.
Assist: Brown W.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Jamaica
15%
Draws
39%
Guadeloupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Guadeloupe at 1.85 per game, Jamaica at 1.48.
  • Model gives Jamaica a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Jamaica, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Jamaica here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 20%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jamaica Guadeloupe
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 15 15
Draws 6 2
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.85
Goals Conceded 1 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2025 Gold Cup
Jamaica vs Guadeloupe
2:1
Jul 16, 2021 Gold Cup
Guadeloupe vs Jamaica
1:2
Dec 5, 2010 Caribbean Cup
Guadeloupe vs Jamaica
1:2
Nov 30, 2010 Caribbean Cup
Guadeloupe vs Jamaica
0:2
Dec 12, 2008 Caribbean Cup
Jamaica vs Guadeloupe
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jamaica Compare

Top Goalscorer Bailey L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Russell J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Guadeloupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambrose T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jamaica 58 / 100
Guadeloupe 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jamaica Guadeloupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jamaica's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Jamaica has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Guadeloupe's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jamaica VS Guadeloupe
1.75 Goals Scored 0.67
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.33
75% Over 1.5 33%
25% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jamaica

(Home)
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
30 May
Jamaica
0 : 3
Nigeria
27 May
Jamaica
2 : 0
India
31 Mar
D.R. Congo
1 : 0
Jamaica
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Guadeloupe

(Away)
25 Sept
Bermuda
1 : 2
Guadeloupe
24 Jun
Guadeloupe
2 : 3
Guatemala
20 Jun
Jamaica
2 : 1
Guadeloupe
16 Jun
Panama
5 : 2
Guadeloupe
26 Mar
Nicaragua
0 : 1
Guadeloupe
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mexico 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Costa Rica 3 2 1 0 6:4 7
3 Dominican Republic 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Suriname 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Canada 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Honduras 3 2 0 1 4:7 6
3 Curacao 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 El Salvador 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panama 3 3 0 0 10:3 9
2 Guatemala 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Jamaica 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Guadeloupe 3 0 0 3 5:10 0
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 USA 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Saudi Arabia 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
3 Trinidad & Tobago 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
4 Haiti 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)