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Jamaica vs Guatemala Prediction & H2H Stats

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Independence Park (National), Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

1'
Lom D.
2' Event
Santis O.
Assist: Rubin R.
7'
East J.

AI Match Summary

Jamaica in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jamaica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Jamaica
15%
Draws
0%
Guatemala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Jamaica have won more games recently than Guatemala.
  • Jamaica are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 68%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jamaica Guatemala
Matches Played 34 32
Wins 19 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.56 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Guatemala
3:2
Jun 17, 2025 Gold Cup
Jamaica vs Guatemala
0:1
Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Jamaica vs Guatemala
3:0
Nov 12, 2023 Friendly International
Guatemala vs Jamaica
0:0
Jul 9, 2023 Gold Cup
Guatemala vs Jamaica
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jamaica Compare

Top Goalscorer Palmer K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Burrell R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Guatemala Compare

Top Goalscorer Santis O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jamaica 86 / 100
Guatemala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jamaica Guatemala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Guatemala has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Jamaica scored in 76% of their last 34 games.

Guatemala let in goals in 78% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Jamaica VS Guatemala
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jamaica

(Home)
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
30 May
Jamaica
0 : 3
Nigeria
27 May
Jamaica
2 : 0
India
31 Mar
D.R. Congo
1 : 0
Jamaica
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Guatemala

(Away)
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
05 Jun
Czech Republic
3 : 1
Guatemala
27 Mar
Algeria
7 : 0
Guatemala
18 Jan
Canada
1 : 0
Guatemala
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 2 2 0 0 10:4 6
2 Haiti 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
3 Dominican Republic 2 2 0 0 5:3 6
4 Trinidad & Tobago 2 0 0 2 3:5 0
5 Costa Rica 2 0 0 2 3:6 0
6 Nicaragua 2 0 0 2 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Salvador 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Jamaica 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Suriname 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
4 Guatemala 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
5 Honduras 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
6 Martinique 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)