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Jamaica vs Mexico - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League
Sun, Nov 15, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Jamaica have averaged 1.52 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Mexico's 1.42 scored and 0.81 conceded. Head-to-head, Jamaica have won 0 to Mexico's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Jun 23, 2024, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 1.63, favoring Mexico. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Jamaica
35%
Draws
13%
Mexico
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Mexico carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Jamaica a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Mexico arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Mexico, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 14%
Mexico Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jamaica Mexico
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 15 17
Draws 6 9
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.52 1.42
Goals Conceded 1 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2024 Copa América
Mexico vs Jamaica
1:0
Jul 13, 2023 Gold Cup
Jamaica vs Mexico
0:3
Mar 27, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Mexico vs Jamaica
2:2
Jun 15, 2022 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Mexico
1:1
Jan 28, 2022 World Championship
Jamaica vs Mexico
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jamaica 48 / 100
Mexico 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jamaica Mexico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jamaica found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Jamaica has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Mexico lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jamaica VS Mexico
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jamaica

(Home)
06 Oct
Honduras
1 : 1
Jamaica
03 Oct
El Salvador
0 : 2
Jamaica
29 Sept
Jamaica
0 : 1
Honduras
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
Page 1 of 6

Mexico

(Away)
07 Oct
Mexico
0 : 2
Chile
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Peru
27 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Colombia
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Mexico -
Jamaica -
Panama -
Curacao -
USA -
Haiti -
Canada -
Guatemala -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -