Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs North Korea U23

Asia Asia

Asian Games Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

1 - 0
FT
North Korea U23 Logo

North Korea U23

Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Umeki R.
39' Event
Nwadik B.
59'
Sub
Yom Chol-gyong In: Ri Il-song
Out: Yom Chol-gyong
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Japan U23
15%
Draws
27%
North Korea U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan U23 have won more games recently than North Korea U23.
  • Japan U23 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Japan U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Japan U23 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
North Korea U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 North Korea U23
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 26 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 2 8
Goals Scored 2.45 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.52 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:0
Oct 1, 2023 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
2:1
Jan 16, 2018 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
3:1
Jan 13, 2016 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:0
Dec 6, 2006 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nwadik B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

North Korea U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 95 / 100
North Korea U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 North Korea U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U23 scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Japan U23 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

North Korea U23 let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS North Korea U23
2.75 Goals Scored 1.43
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
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North Korea U23

(Away)
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Iran U23
1 : 4
North Korea U23
20 Sept
North Korea U23
0 : 0
United Arab Emirates U23
16 Sept
China U23
2 : 1
North Korea U23
31 Mar
North Korea U23
3 : 1
Thailand U23
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea U23 4
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Thailand U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 3
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Japan U23 1
North Korea U23 0
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 -
China U23 -
Uzbekistan U23 -
Japan U23 -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -