Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs Thailand U23

Asia Asia

Asian Games Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

3 - 0
FT
Thailand U23 Logo

Thailand U23

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Nakajima Y.
Assist: Ishibashi S.
46'
Sub
Sangtong A. In: Sienkrthok P.
Out: Sangtong A.
46'
Sub
Tamma C. In: Inaram W.
Out: Tamma C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Japan U23 in this Asian Games matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Japan U23
15%
Draws
24%
Thailand U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan U23 lately — more wins on the board than Thailand U23.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Japan U23 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Japan U23 have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Thailand U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 Thailand U23
Matches Played 33 35
Wins 27 10
Draws 3 8
Losses 3 17
Goals Scored 2.55 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.61 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2026 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs Thailand U23
3:0
Jan 13, 2018 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Japan U23
0:1
Jan 16, 2016 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Japan U23
0:4
Nov 19, 2010 Asian Games
Thailand U23 vs Japan U23
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakajima Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kosugi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Thailand U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 95 / 100
Thailand U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 Thailand U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Japan U23 scored in 94% of their last 33 outings.

Recent resilience: Japan U23 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Thailand U23 has conceded goals in 77% of their last 35 outings.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS Thailand U23
3 Goals Scored 1.25
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
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Thailand U23

(Away)
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Hong Kong U23
1 : 5
Thailand U23
16 Sept
Thailand U23
3 : 2
Kyrgyzstan U23
09 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 5
United Arab Emirates U23
06 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 3
South Korea U23
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan U23 3 3 0 0 12:0 9
2 Thailand U23 3 2 0 1 8:6 6
3 Kyrgyzstan U23 3 1 0 2 6:10 3
4 Hong Kong U23 3 0 0 3 1:11 0
Promotion - Asian Games (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 China U23 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
2 North Korea U23 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
3 Iran U23 3 1 1 1 4:5 4
4 United Arab Emirates U23 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
Promotion - Asian Games (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan U23 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Vietnam U23 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
3 Philippines U23 3 1 0 2 3:8 3
4 Kuwait U23 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Asian Games (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Korea U23 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
2 Saudi Arabia U23 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Qatar U23 2 0 0 2 1:6 0
Promotion - Asian Games (Play Offs)