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Japan vs Ecuador - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Kirin Cup (Japan) Nissan Stadium, Yokohama
Thu, Oct 1, 2026
1 - 0
10:10 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Yeboah J.
46'
Sub
Franco A. In: Torres F.
Out: Franco A.
46'
Sub
Tanimura K. In: Ueda A.
Out: Tanimura K.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Japan
15%
Draws
17%
Ecuador
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Japan come out ahead of Ecuador on wins alone.
  • Japan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Japan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Japan Clean Sheet 20%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Ecuador
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 10
Draws 6 13
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.27 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.6 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 Kirin Cup (Japan)
Japan vs Ecuador
1:0
Sep 27, 2022 Friendly International
Japan vs Ecuador
0:0
Jun 24, 2019 Copa América
Ecuador vs Japan
1:1
Mar 30, 2006 Friendly International
Japan vs Ecuador
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 85 / 100
Ecuador 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Ecuador

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Japan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Ecuador registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Ecuador has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Ecuador
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
05 Oct
Japan
2 : 1
New Zealand
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
28 Sept
Japan
2 : 1
Venezuela
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
Page 1 of 6

Ecuador

(Away)
05 Oct
Ecuador
1 : 2
Panama
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
24 Sept
South Korea
3 : 0
Ecuador
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Japan 1
Ecuador 0
Panama 1
New Zealand 2
Final
Japan 2
New Zealand 1
Ecuador 1
Panama 2