Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan vs Hong Kong

Asia Asia

EAFF E-1 Football Championship Yongin Mireu Stadium, Yongin
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Germain R.
Assist: Soma Y.
10' Event
Germain R.
Assist: Soma Y.
20' Event
Inagaki S.
Assist: Miyashiro T.

AI Match Summary

Japan in this EAFF E-1 Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Japan
20%
Draws
34%
Hong Kong
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan lately — more wins on the board than Hong Kong.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Japan taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Japan have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Japan Clean Sheet 68%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Hong Kong
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 19 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.43 1.82
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs Hong Kong
6:1
Jul 19, 2022 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs Hong Kong
6:0
Dec 14, 2019 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs Hong Kong
5:0
Feb 11, 2010 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Japan vs Hong Kong
3:0
Nov 18, 2009 Asian Cup
Hong Kong vs Japan
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Germain R.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Inagaki S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Hong Kong Compare

Top Goalscorer Orr M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 50 / 100
Hong Kong 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Hong Kong

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Hong Kong let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Japan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Hong Kong
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
14 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 2
Japan
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Hong Kong

(Away)
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
31 Mar
India
2 : 1
Hong Kong
03 Jan
Guangdong XI
3 : 2
Hong Kong
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