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Stadium Background

Japan vs Indonesia

World World

World Championship 2026 Panasonic Stadium Suita
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Japan play Indonesia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Japan averaged 2.56 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Indonesia averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Japan won 4, Indonesia won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 6:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Japan and 1.09 for Indonesia. This points to a Japan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Japan
20%
Draws
28%
Indonesia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Japan picked up more points recently compared to Indonesia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.09 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%
Japan Clean Sheet 22%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Indonesia
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 23 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 3 12
Goals Scored 2.56 1.71
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Japan vs Indonesia
6:0
Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Japan
0:4
Jan 24, 2024 Asian Cup
Japan vs Indonesia
3:1
Jun 10, 1989 World Championship
Japan vs Indonesia
5:0
May 27, 1989 World Championship
Indonesia vs Japan
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamada D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kubo T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Indonesia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 51 / 100
Indonesia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Indonesia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Japan or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Japan attacking → ← attacking Indonesia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Indonesia let in goals in 47% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Japan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Indonesia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

75 Points in last 5 52
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.43
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.71

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PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Japan1072130:323
2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166