Sport Picks

Japan vs Indonesia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia

Asian Cup Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah

Indonesia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Indonesia have shipped 1.11 goals a game lately, while Japan have conceded 0.55 and scored 2.33. Head-to-head, Japan have won 4 to Indonesia's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 10, 2025, ending 6:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.38, favoring Japan. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Japan

20%

Draws

38%

Indonesia

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence

Japan carry the better recent record into this one.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
Japan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Japan, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Japan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

Japan Clean Sheet 17%

Indonesia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Japan	Indonesia
Matches Played	33	35
Wins	24	19
Draws	6	6
Losses	3	10
Goals Scored	2.33	2.23
Goals Conceded	0.55	1.11
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship

Japan vs Indonesia

6:0

Nov 15, 2024 World Championship

Indonesia vs Japan

0:4

Jan 24, 2024 Asian Cup

Japan vs Indonesia

3:1

Jun 10, 1989 World Championship

Japan vs Indonesia

5:0

May 27, 1989 World Championship

Indonesia vs Japan

0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 36 / 100

Indonesia 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Japan Indonesia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Indonesia Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (33 games).

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Japan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Indonesia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 49% of 35 matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Indonesia

1.88 Goals Scored 1.88

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)

05 Oct

Japan

2 : 1

New Zealand

01 Oct

Japan

1 : 0

Ecuador

28 Sept

Japan

2 : 1

Venezuela

24 Sept

Japan

3 : 1

Uruguay

29 Jun

Brazil

2 : 1

Japan

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Indonesia

(Away)

05 Oct

Indonesia

3 : 2

Thailand

01 Oct

Indonesia

9 : 2

Bangladesh

28 Sept

Malaysia

0 : 0

Indonesia

25 Sept

Indonesia

2 : 0

Singapore

07 Aug

Singapore

1 : 1

Indonesia

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