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Stadium Background

Japan vs Paraguay

World World

Friendly International 2025 Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Almiron M.
Assist: Bobadilla D.
26' Event
Ogawa K.
Assist: Sano K.
63'
Tanaka A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Japan
30%
Draws
39%
Paraguay
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paraguay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan lately — more wins on the board than Paraguay.
  • Model gives Japan a 31% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Japan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Japan Clean Sheet 68%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Paraguay
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 19 13
Draws 6 9
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.43 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2025 Friendly International
Japan vs Paraguay
2:2
Jun 2, 2022 Friendly International
Japan vs Paraguay
4:1
Sep 5, 2019 Friendly International
Japan vs Paraguay
2:0
Jun 12, 2018 Friendly International
Japan vs Paraguay
4:2
Sep 4, 2010 Friendly International
Japan vs Paraguay
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogawa K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ueda A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Paraguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Almiron M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 50 / 100
Paraguay 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Paraguay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Japan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Paraguay conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Paraguay
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
14 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 2
Japan
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Paraguay

(Away)
27 Sept
Bolivia
0 : 2
Paraguay
04 Jul
Paraguay
0 : 1
France
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
20 Jun
Turkey
0 : 1
Paraguay
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