Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan W vs Canada W

World World

Friendly International Women 2025 Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki, Nagasaki
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sub
Okuma A. In: Hirao C.
Out: Okuma A.
45' Event
Tanaka M.
46'
Sub
Hasegawa Y. In: Tanikawa M.
Out: Hasegawa Y.

AI Match Summary

Japan W in this Friendly International Women 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Japan W
15%
Draws
42%
Canada W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan W lately — more wins on the board than Canada W.
  • Japan W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Japan W Clean Sheet 15%
Canada W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan W Canada W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 17
Draws 4 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.97 1.9
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 2, 2025 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs Canada W
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs Canada W
3:0
Feb 22, 2023 SheBelieves Cup Women
Canada W vs Japan W
0:3
Jul 21, 2021 Olympic Games Women
Japan W vs Canada W
1:1
Feb 21, 2021 SheBelieves Cup Women
Japan W vs Canada W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanaka M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Canada W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan W 84 / 100
Canada W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan W Canada W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan W found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Canada W let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Japan W remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan W VS Canada W
3.63 Goals Scored 2.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan W

(Home)
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
14 Sept
Japan W
8 : 0
Thailand W
09 Jun
Japan W
0 : 1
South Africa W
06 Jun
Japan W
5 : 0
South Africa W
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Canada W

(Away)
10 Jun
Costa Rica W
0 : 6
Canada W
19 Apr
Brazil W
1 : 0
Canada W
14 Apr
Canada W
3 : 1
South Korea W
11 Apr
Canada W
4 : 0
Zambia W
07 Mar
Canada W
1 : 0
Argentina W
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