Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan W vs Canada W Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International Women 2025 Peace Stadium, Nagasaki
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Tanikawa M.
Assist: Tanaka M.
51' Event
Tanaka M.
56'
Awujo S.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International Women 2025 game between Japan W and Canada W finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Japan W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Japan W
15%
Draws
38%
Canada W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan W's 2.93 goals per match outpaces what Canada W have produced (1.93).
  • Japan W are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 61.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Japan W Clean Sheet 68%
Canada W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan W Canada W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 17
Draws 4 3
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.93 1.93
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.39 1.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 2, 2025 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs Canada W
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs Canada W
3:0
Feb 22, 2023 SheBelieves Cup Women
Canada W vs Japan W
0:3
Jul 21, 2021 Olympic Games Women
Japan W vs Canada W
1:1
Feb 21, 2021 SheBelieves Cup Women
Japan W vs Canada W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanikawa M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tanaka M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.69

Canada W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan W 86 / 100
Canada W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan W Canada W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Japan W scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Japan W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Canada W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Japan W VS Canada W
2.38 Goals Scored 2.6
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.4
63% Over 1.5 60%
63% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan W

(Home)
29 Sept
Japan W
2 : 0
South Korea W
25 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Philippines W
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
14 Sept
Japan W
8 : 0
Thailand W
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Canada W

(Away)
10 Jun
Costa Rica W
0 : 6
Canada W
19 Apr
Brazil W
1 : 0
Canada W
14 Apr
Canada W
3 : 1
South Korea W
11 Apr
Canada W
4 : 0
Zambia W
07 Mar
Canada W
1 : 0
Argentina W
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