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Japan W vs South Korea W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games Women Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa, Shizuoka
Japan W Logo

Japan W

2 - 0
FT
South Korea W Logo

South Korea W

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Hyun S. In: Son Hwa-Yeon
Out: Hyun S.
46'
Sub
Takarada S. In: Mizuno F.
Out: Takarada S.
54' Event
Kamiya C.
Assist: Ueno M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Japan W
15%
Draws
34%
South Korea W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan W have won more games recently than South Korea W.
  • Japan W are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Japan W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan W, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Japan W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Japan W Clean Sheet 10%
South Korea W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan W South Korea W
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 21 15
Draws 4 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.97 2.52
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 Asian Games Women
Japan W vs South Korea W
2:0
Mar 18, 2026 Asian Cup Women
South Korea W vs Japan W
1:4
Jul 13, 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship Women
Japan W vs South Korea W
1:1
Oct 26, 2024 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs South Korea W
4:0
Jul 19, 2022 EAFF E-1 Football Championship Women
Japan W vs South Korea W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamiya C.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

South Korea W Compare

Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan W 38 / 100
South Korea W 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan W South Korea W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan W found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Japan W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

South Korea W has conceded goals in 58% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Japan W VS South Korea W
3.88 Goals Scored 5.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan W

(Home)
09 Oct
Haiti W
1 : 5
Japan W
02 Oct
North Korea W
2 : 3
Japan W
29 Sept
Japan W
2 : 0
South Korea W
25 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Philippines W
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
Page 1 of 7

South Korea W

(Away)
02 Oct
China W
0 : 1
South Korea W
29 Sept
Japan W
2 : 0
South Korea W
25 Sept
South Korea W
6 : 3
Uzbekistan W
21 Sept
South Korea W
1 : 1
North Korea W
17 Sept
Bangladesh W
0 : 6
South Korea W
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
North Korea W 5
Chinese Taipei W 1
China W 1
Vietnam W 0
Japan W 4
Philippines W 0
South Korea W 6
Uzbekistan W 3
Semi-finals
North Korea W 2
China W 0
Japan W 2
South Korea W 0
Final
North Korea W 2
Japan W 3
China W 0
South Korea W 1