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Jaraiz vs Arroyo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Cortes Gallego K.
70' Event
Cordeiro F.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 game between Jaraiz and Arroyo finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Jaraiz
20%
Draws
16%
Arroyo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jaraiz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Jaraiz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Jaraiz a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Arroyo here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 20%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaraiz Arroyo
Matches Played 34 32
Wins 13 5
Draws 11 7
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.44 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.24 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Arroyo
1:1
Oct 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Jaraiz
4:3
Apr 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Arroyo
0:2
Nov 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Jaraiz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaraiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordeiro F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Arroyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cortes Gallego K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaraiz 85 / 100
Arroyo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaraiz Arroyo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaraiz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaraiz found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Arroyo conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Arroyo's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaraiz VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaraiz

(Home)
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0
Jaraiz
Page 1 of 7

Arroyo

(Away)
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2
CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0
Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4
SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0
Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2
CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 23 6 5 73:22 75
2 CD Azuaga 34 20 11 3 65:28 71
3 Jaraiz 34 21 6 7 65:40 69
4 AD Llerenense 34 21 5 8 58:28 68
5 CD Badajoz 34 17 12 5 54:20 63
6 CD Diocesano 34 17 7 10 58:38 58
7 Santa Amalia 34 16 6 12 31:31 54
8 Jerez CF 34 14 9 11 50:48 51
9 SP Villafranca 34 14 5 15 55:55 47
10 Moralo 34 13 7 14 52:50 46
11 Montijo 34 11 12 11 35:34 45
12 Pueblonuevo 34 9 9 16 42:71 36
13 CD Calamonte 34 8 9 17 36:48 33
14 Puebla de la Calzada 34 7 11 16 35:56 32
15 Castuera 34 7 8 19 46:64 29
16 CF Trujillo 34 6 10 18 32:63 28
17 Arroyo 34 5 7 22 32:70 22
18 Olivenza FC 34 3 8 23 26:79 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)