Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jaraiz vs Cabeza del Buey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jaraiz host Cabeza del Buey in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Jaraiz at 1.27 goals for, 1.18 against; Cabeza del Buey at 1.34 for, 0.93 against. Past meetings favor Jaraiz slightly — 1-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.50, favoring Cabeza del Buey. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Jaraiz
30%
Draws
39%
Cabeza del Buey
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cabeza del Buey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cabeza del Buey come out ahead of Jaraiz on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 16%
Cabeza del Buey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaraiz Cabeza del Buey
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 12 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.27 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Cabeza del Buey
2:1
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Cabeza del Buey vs Jaraiz
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaraiz 36 / 100
Cabeza del Buey 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaraiz Cabeza del Buey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cabeza del Buey Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaraiz found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (33 games).

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Cabeza del Buey's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Jaraiz has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jaraiz VS Cabeza del Buey
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaraiz

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 7

Cabeza del Buey

(Away)
04 Oct
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 1
Villanovense
27 Sept
Guadiana
1 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
20 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 2
CD Azuaga
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
11 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)