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Jaraiz vs Moralo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Cordeiro F.
22' Event
Cinta C.
28' Event
Trinidad J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between Jaraiz and Moralo finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moralo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Jaraiz
20%
Draws
57%
Moralo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Jaraiz haven't matched Moralo's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Jaraiz a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Jaraiz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 20%
Moralo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaraiz Moralo
Matches Played 32 35
Wins 11 21
Draws 12 9
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.34 1.49
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Moralo
2:3
Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Jaraiz
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Moralo
3:0
Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Moralo
6:1
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Jaraiz
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaraiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordeiro F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matos T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cinta C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Trinidad J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaraiz 36 / 100
Moralo 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaraiz Moralo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Jaraiz scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Moralo let in goals in 57% of their last 35 matches.

Jaraiz has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jaraiz VS Moralo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaraiz

(Home)
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0
Jaraiz
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0
CD Badajoz
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Moralo

(Away)
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0
CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0
Moralo
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
2 Moralo 3 3 0 0 7:3 9
3 AD Llerenense 3 3 0 0 3:0 9
4 Puebla de la Calzada 3 2 1 0 7:2 7
5 Castuera 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
6 CD Zafra 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
7 Santa Amalia 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
8 Jerez CF 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
9 Gevora 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
10 Cabeza del Buey 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
11 Villanovense 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
12 Montijo 3 1 0 2 4:6 3
13 SP Villafranca 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
14 Pueblonuevo 3 0 2 1 4:7 2
15 Jaraiz 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
16 Quintana 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 UP Plasencia 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
18 Guadiana 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)