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Jaro vs Mariehamn Prediction & H2H Stats

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Project Liv Arena, Pietarsaari
Jaro Logo

Jaro

Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jaro host Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga. This one's hard to separate. Jaro have averaged 1 scored and 1.97 conceded recently, against Mariehamn's 1.1 scored and 1.7 conceded. Past meetings favor Jaro slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 31, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 1.56) point toward Mariehamn. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Jaro
20%
Draws
65%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Mariehamn have won more games recently than Jaro.
  • Model gives Mariehamn a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Jaro Clean Sheet 15%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaro Mariehamn
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 8 5
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Jaro
2:0
May 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
2:3
Jul 6, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Jaro
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaro 10 / 100
Mariehamn 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaro Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Jaro found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Jaro stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jaro VS Mariehamn
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaro

(Home)
18 Sept
Lahti
1 : 1
Jaro
12 Sept
Jaro
1 : 1
SJK
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0
Jaro
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
22 Aug
Jaro
0 : 1
AC Oulu
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Lahti 25 10 6 9 30:24 36
8 Ilves 25 10 4 11 42:38 34
9 TPS 25 8 8 9 28:27 32
10 SJK 25 5 9 11 28:35 24
11 Mariehamn 25 4 5 16 20:47 17
12 Jaro 25 3 8 14 20:48 17
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkosliiga 2027 (Main)