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Jarocin vs Nielba Wagrowiec

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jarocin play Nielba Wagrowiec in the III Liga - Group II 2020/2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jarocin averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.05 conceded. Nielba Wagrowiec averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. In past meetings, Jarocin won 3, Nielba Wagrowiec won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 6, 2021 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Jarocin and 1.08 for Nielba Wagrowiec. This points to a Jarocin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Jarocin
18%
Draws
37%
Nielba Wagrowiec
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Jarocin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Jarocin picked up more points recently compared to Nielba Wagrowiec.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.08 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Jarocin Clean Sheet 22%
Nielba Wagrowiec Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jarocin Nielba Wagrowiec
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 12 8
Draws 4 8
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 1.43 1.77
Goals Conceded 2.05 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2021 III Liga - Group II
Jarocin vs Nielba Wagrowiec
2:0
Aug 15, 2020 III Liga - Group II
Nielba Wagrowiec vs Jarocin
2:4
Jun 11, 2020 III Liga - Group II
Jarocin vs Nielba Wagrowiec
0:0
Nov 9, 2019 III Liga - Group II
Nielba Wagrowiec vs Jarocin
2:1
May 7, 2016 III Liga - Group II
Nielba Wagrowiec vs Jarocin
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jarocin Compare

Top Goalscorer Mackowiak M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Nielba Wagrowiec Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jarocin 45 / 100
Nielba Wagrowiec 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jarocin Nielba Wagrowiec

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jarocin or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jarocin attacking → ← attacking Nielba Wagrowiec

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jarocin scored in 65% of their last 37 games.

Nielba Wagrowiec let in goals in 90% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Jarocin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nielba Wagrowiec lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 32
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.67
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00