Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Zaleiko G.
45' Event
Minins J.
46'
Sub
Hrvoj T. In: Rubenis O.
Out: Hrvoj T.

AI Match Summary

FK Auda Riga in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Auda Riga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Jelgava
15%
Draws
68%
FK Auda Riga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Auda Riga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Auda Riga lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on FK Auda Riga taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 15%
FK Auda Riga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava FK Auda Riga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 20
Draws 7 4
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 0.97 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
0:1
Jun 13, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Jelgava
1:1
Apr 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
2:3
Sep 27, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Jelgava
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

FK Auda Riga Compare

Top Goalscorer Minins J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 10 / 100
FK Auda Riga 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava FK Auda Riga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Auda Riga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Auda Riga let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Jelgava's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Jelgava stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS FK Auda Riga
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1
FK Auda Riga
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1
RFS
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FK Auda Riga

(Away)
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
17 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 2
Grobina
13 Aug
Dinamo City
4 : 0
FK Auda Riga
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1
FK Auda Riga
04 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Dinamo City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 26 21 3 2 65:20 66
2 Riga FC 26 20 5 1 79:24 65
3 FK Auda Riga 25 15 4 6 42:26 49
4 BFC Daugavpils 27 10 7 10 33:31 37
5 FK Liepaja 26 11 4 11 36:38 37
6 Jelgava 27 7 7 13 28:46 28
7 Super Nova 25 8 4 13 26:37 28
8 Grobina 27 4 9 14 19:50 21
9 Tukums 2000 27 4 8 15 40:54 20
10 Ogre United 26 3 5 18 26:68 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)