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Stadium Background

Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Zaleiko G.
45' Event
Minins J.
46'
Sub
Hrvoj T. In: Rubenis O.
Out: Hrvoj T.

AI Match Summary

FK Auda Riga in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Auda Riga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Jelgava
30%
Draws
64%
FK Auda Riga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FK Auda Riga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Auda Riga lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on FK Auda Riga taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 13%
FK Auda Riga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava FK Auda Riga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 18
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.07 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
0:1
Jun 13, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Jelgava
1:1
Apr 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
2:3
Sep 27, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Auda Riga
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Jelgava
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FK Auda Riga Compare

Top Goalscorer Minins J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 11 / 100
FK Auda Riga 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava FK Auda Riga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Auda Riga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Jelgava found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

FK Auda Riga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Jelgava stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS FK Auda Riga
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
18 Oct
FK Liepaja
3 : 0
Jelgava
11 Oct
RFS
4 : 2
Jelgava
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
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FK Auda Riga

(Away)
12 Oct
FK Liepaja
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 32 25 5 2 79:24 80
2 Riga FC 32 23 7 2 88:30 76
3 FK Auda Riga 32 19 7 6 52:32 64
4 FK Liepaja 32 12 7 13 43:46 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 32 11 9 12 37:36 42
6 Super Nova 32 11 5 16 31:45 38
7 Jelgava 32 8 8 16 34:53 32
8 Grobina 33 6 11 16 25:56 29
9 Tukums 2000 32 5 9 18 44:63 24
10 Ogre United 33 4 6 23 33:81 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)