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Jelgava vs FK Liepaja - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Oloko E.
24'
Novikovs J.
27' Event
Ogunniyi A.
Assist: Haidara A.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Jelgava and FK Liepaja finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Jelgava
35%
Draws
30%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Jelgava haven't matched FK Liepaja's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Jelgava a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 17%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava FK Liepaja
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.04 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Liepaja
0:2
May 26, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Liepaja
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
1:1
Feb 27, 2026 Club Friendly
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
3:0
Feb 27, 2026 Club Friendly
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogunniyi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 41 / 100
FK Liepaja 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Jelgava stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Jelgava scored in 50% of their last 28 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS FK Liepaja
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Riga FC 32 23 7 2 88:30 76
2 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 31 11 5 15 31:41 38
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 32 5 11 16 22:54 26
9 Tukums 2000 32 5 9 18 44:63 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)