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Jelgava vs FK Liepaja Prediction & H2H Stats

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Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Sub
Rodolphe E. In: Korobenko A.
Out: Rodolphe E.
26' Event
Rataj T.
28'
Sub
Isajevs V. In: Korotkovs I.
Out: Isajevs V.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Jelgava
35%
Draws
30%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Liepaja lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
  • Jelgava are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 18%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava FK Liepaja
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Liepaja
0:2
May 26, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs FK Liepaja
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
1:1
Feb 27, 2026 Club Friendly
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
3:0
Feb 27, 2026 Club Friendly
FK Liepaja vs Jelgava
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Rataj T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Leidsman K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 36 / 100
FK Liepaja 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Jelgava has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Jelgava scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS FK Liepaja
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)