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Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction & H2H Stats

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Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
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Match Events

67'
Sub
Samate A. In: Bombans G.
Out: Samate A.
69'
Sub
Hasek F. In: Petersons A.
Out: Hasek F.
69'
Sub
Novikovs J. In: Patika G.
Out: Novikovs J.

AI Match Summary

Super Nova in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Super Nova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Jelgava
20%
Draws
40%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Super Nova lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 19%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Super Nova
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Super Nova
0:1
Jun 25, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:5
May 6, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Super Nova
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Glaudans A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 31 / 100
Super Nova 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jelgava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Super Nova conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Jelgava remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Jelgava scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Super Nova
1 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)