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Jerusalem FC vs Hapoel Sderot FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Israel Israel

Liga Alef South
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jerusalem FC host Hapoel Sderot FC in the Liga Alef South. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Jerusalem FC have averaged 1.9 scored and 1.19 conceded recently, against Hapoel Sderot FC's 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 0.63, favoring Jerusalem FC. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Jerusalem FC
30%
Draws
23%
Hapoel Sderot FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jerusalem FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Jerusalem FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Jerusalem FC a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Jerusalem FC Clean Sheet 20%
Hapoel Sderot FC Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jerusalem FC Hapoel Sderot FC
Matches Played 21 9
Wins 10 4
Draws 5 1
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 1.9 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jerusalem FC 76 / 100
Hapoel Sderot FC 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jerusalem FC Hapoel Sderot FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jerusalem FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerusalem FC found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (21 games).

Hapoel Sderot FC let in goals in 78% of their last 9 matches.

Jerusalem FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Hapoel Sderot FC's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jerusalem FC VS Hapoel Sderot FC
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jerusalem FC

(Home)
09 Oct
Jerusalem FC
0 : 1
Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Malachi
30 Sept
Tzeirei Tira
0 : 2
Jerusalem FC
24 Sept
Jerusalem FC
1 : 1
Maccabi Yavne
18 Sept
Beitar Nordia Jerusalem
1 : 3
Jerusalem FC
09 Sept
Jerusalem FC
1 : 1
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Page 1 of 5

Hapoel Sderot FC

(Away)
09 Oct
FC Dimona
4 : 1
Hapoel Sderot FC
01 Oct
Hapoel Sderot FC
0 : 0
Hapoel Azor
23 Sept
Ramat Hasharon
1 : 0
Hapoel Sderot FC
17 Sept
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
0 : 1
Hapoel Sderot FC
09 Sept
Hapoel Sderot FC
1 : 2
Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Malachi
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Dimona 6 5 0 1 12:8 15
2 Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Malachi 6 4 2 0 12:3 14
3 Shimshon Tel Aviv 6 4 1 1 13:6 13
4 H. Herzliya 6 3 3 0 6:2 12
5 Ramat Hasharon 6 3 3 0 6:3 12
6 Jerusalem FC 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
7 Holon Yermiyahu 6 3 1 2 8:5 10
8 Maccabi Yavne 6 2 3 1 9:3 9
9 Hapoel Hadera 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
10 Hapoel Azor 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
11 Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 6 1 4 1 8:7 7
12 Hapoel Sderot FC 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
13 Ironi Beit Shemesh 6 2 1 3 8:14 7
14 Hapoel Marmorek 6 1 2 3 5:7 5
15 Kfar Saba 1928 6 1 1 4 7:10 4
16 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 6 0 3 3 4:8 3
17 Tzeirei Tira 6 0 0 6 2:13 0
18 Beitar Nordia Jerusalem 6 0 0 6 2:18 0
Promotion - Leumit League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Alef North (Promotion - Play Offs)