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Jinju Citizen vs Daejeon

South Korea South Korea

Korean Cup 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jinju Citizen play Daejeon in the Korean Cup 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jinju Citizen averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Daejeon averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Jinju Citizen won 0, Daejeon won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 17, 2024 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Jinju Citizen and 1.19 for Daejeon. This points to a Jinju Citizen double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Jinju Citizen
18%
Draws
37%
Daejeon
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Jinju Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Jinju Citizen picked up more points recently compared to Daejeon.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Jinju Citizen Clean Sheet 20%
Daejeon Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jinju Citizen Daejeon
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 2 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.15 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2024 Korean Cup
Jinju Citizen vs Daejeon
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jinju Citizen Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Daejeon Compare

Top Goalscorer Mlapa P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shin Sang-Eun
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jinju Citizen 45 / 100
Daejeon 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jinju Citizen Daejeon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jinju Citizen or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jinju Citizen attacking → ← attacking Daejeon

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jinju Citizen scored in 88% of their last 26 games.

Daejeon let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Jinju Citizen went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Daejeon lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 44
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00