Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga B

Tartu Kalev

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Johvi Phoenix play Tartu Kalev in the Esiliiga B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Johvi Phoenix averaged 2.48 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. Tartu Kalev averaged 2.52 goals scored and 2.35 conceded. In past meetings, Johvi Phoenix won 4, Tartu Kalev won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.63 for Johvi Phoenix and 2.50 for Tartu Kalev. This points to a Johvi Phoenix double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Johvi Phoenix

15%

Draws

34%

Tartu Kalev

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Johvi Phoenix

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Johvi Phoenix picked up more points recently compared to Tartu Kalev.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.63 vs 2.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 93%

Over 2.5 Goals 83%

Over 3.5 Goals 50%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Johvi Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%

Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 84%

Second Half Goal 88%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Johvi Phoenix	Tartu Kalev
Matches Played	33	31
Wins	17	12
Draws	3	4
Losses	13	15
Goals Scored	2.48	2.52
Goals Conceded	2.15	2.35
Expected Goals (xG)	2.63	2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Esiliiga B

Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 4 - 3

3:2

May 1, 2026 Esiliiga B

Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

4:3

Sep 27, 2025 Esiliiga B

Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev

Possession: 40% - 58% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Sep 7, 2025 Esiliiga B

Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 1 - 4

1:3

Aug 30, 2025 Esiliiga B

Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Johvi Phoenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsvibelberg G.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Zahharov J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.02

Avg xA / game 1.31

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Kohv K.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Bazjukin N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Johvi Phoenix 48 / 100

Tartu Kalev 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Johvi Phoenix Tartu Kalev

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Johvi Phoenix or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +7.9%

1.30

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Johvi Phoenix attacking → ← attacking Tartu Kalev

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Johvi Phoenix scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Tartu Kalev let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Johvi Phoenix went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tartu Kalev lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 40

2.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.75

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tammeka Tartu U21	18	11	2	5	52:36	35
2	Tulevik	18	11	1	6	55:37	34
3	Narva U21	17	10	2	5	43:26	32
4	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	18	10	2	6	54:38	32
5	Johvi Phoenix	18	10	1	7	45:45	31
6	Levadia U19	18	9	2	7	44:33	29
7	Tabasalu	18	8	0	10	31:50	24
8	Tartu Kalev	18	7	1	10	39:40	22
9	Tallinna Kalev U21	18	4	2	12	37:42	14
10	Legion	17	2	1	14	14:67	7