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Joinville vs Figueirense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Arena Joinville, Joinville
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Match Events

33'
Jean Mangabeira
36'
Maiky
42' Event
Kayke

AI Match Summary

Figueirense in this Catarinense matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Figueirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Joinville
15%
Draws
50%
Figueirense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Figueirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Figueirense lately — more wins on the board than Joinville.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Catarinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Figueirense here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Joinville Clean Sheet 16%
Figueirense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Joinville Figueirense
Matches Played 32 36
Wins 10 17
Draws 4 8
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1.09 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Figueirense
0:3
Feb 6, 2026 Catarinense
Figueirense vs Joinville
1:0
Jan 7, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Figueirense
2:3
Nov 23, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Figueirense vs Joinville
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Figueirense
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Joinville Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Figueirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Kayke
2 Goals
Assists Leader Arthur Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.82

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Joinville 31 / 100
Figueirense 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Joinville Figueirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Figueirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Figueirense has conceded goals in 64% of their last 36 outings.

Joinville has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Joinville's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Joinville VS Figueirense
1.83 Goals Scored 1.13
1.83 Goals Conceded 1
83% Over 1.5 63%
83% Over 2.5 50%
67% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Joinville

(Home)
26 Sept
Joinville
2 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
Page 1 of 7

Figueirense

(Away)
27 Sept
CA Metropolitano
0 : 1
Figueirense
20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
Figueirense
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
05 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Carlos Renaux 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
3 Figueirense 6 2 0 4 6:7 7
4 Joinville 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Relegation - Catarinense 2 2027 (Main)