Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jonava vs Garliava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Raginis A.
86'
Akinis N.
86'
Akinis N.

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between Jonava and Garliava finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jonava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Jonava
15%
Draws
0%
Garliava
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jonava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Garliava carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Jonava taking it.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Jonava Clean Sheet 68%
Garliava Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jonava Garliava
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 I Lyga
Jonava vs Garliava
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 I Lyga
Garliava vs Jonava
2:0
Sep 1, 2023 I Lyga
Jonava vs Garliava
2:1
Apr 15, 2023 I Lyga
Garliava vs Jonava
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jonava Compare

Top Goalscorer Raginis A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Garliava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jonava 50 / 100
Garliava 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jonava Garliava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jonava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Garliava's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Garliava let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Jonava found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Jonava VS Garliava
1.13 Goals Scored 0.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jonava

(Home)
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
04 Sept
Jonava
0 : 0
Dainava Alytus
29 Aug
Transinvest 2
1 : 2
Jonava
21 Aug
Jonava
0 : 1
Siauliai 2
14 Aug
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
2 : 1
Jonava
Page 1 of 6

Garliava

(Away)
05 Sept
Ekranas
1 : 0
Garliava
29 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
FK Babrungas
21 Aug
BE1 NFA
2 : 0
Garliava
15 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
Tauras Taurage
07 Aug
Hegelmann Litauen 2
3 : 1
Garliava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
2 FK Minija 22 19 1 2 58:12 58
3 Neptunas 24 14 2 8 32:28 44
4 BE1 NFA 22 14 2 6 39:24 44
5 BFA Vilnius 24 13 3 8 38:34 42
6 Tauras Taurage 23 12 4 7 40:28 40
7 Zalgiris 2 23 12 4 7 37:31 40
8 Dainava Alytus 22 10 7 5 33:20 37
9 FK Atmosfera 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
10 Jonava 24 7 6 11 26:30 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 24 7 1 16 30:55 22
12 Garliava 23 6 4 13 25:27 22
13 Transinvest 2 24 6 3 15 28:56 21
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 22 5 1 16 18:35 16
15 Ekranas 23 4 2 17 22:50 14
16 Siauliai 2 23 3 5 15 21:52 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)