Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 De Herdgang, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Verkuijl M.
46'
Sub
Verkuijl M. In: van de Pavert R.
Out: Verkuijl M.
46'
Sub
Bassey E. In: Verkooijen N.
Out: Bassey E.

AI Match Summary

Jong Ajax in this Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jong Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Jong PSV
30%
Draws
33%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jong PSV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Jong PSV have won more games recently than Jong Ajax.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Jong PSV Clean Sheet 14%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong PSV Jong Ajax
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 5 3
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.63 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax
1:1
Apr 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax
0:1
Oct 17, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV
2:2
Jan 20, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV
4:0
Aug 12, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jong PSV Compare

Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Niel D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong PSV 30 / 100
Jong Ajax 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong PSV Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jong PSV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong PSV's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Jong Ajax conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Jong PSV stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jong PSV VS Jong Ajax
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong PSV

(Home)
11 Sept
Helmond Sport
3 : 1
Jong PSV
07 Sept
Jong PSV
3 : 1
Den Bosch
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
24 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 0
TOP Oss
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Jong Ajax

(Away)
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
28 Aug
Jong Ajax
3 : 2
Helmond Sport
22 Aug
NAC Breda
3 : 2
Jong Ajax
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Den Haag 38 29 2 7 90:37 89
2 Cambuur 38 23 9 6 75:48 78
3 Willem II 38 20 8 10 59:42 68
4 De Graafschap 38 18 9 11 74:58 63
5 Almere City 38 18 4 16 78:63 58
6 Waalwijk 38 16 10 12 71:59 58
7 Jong PSV 38 17 5 16 66:64 56
8 Roda 38 14 13 11 59:54 55
9 Den Bosch 38 14 9 15 65:69 51
10 Dordrecht 38 12 11 15 48:56 47
11 Eindhoven FC 38 14 5 19 51:69 47
12 Jong Utrecht 38 12 10 16 58:62 46
13 Venlo 38 13 6 19 50:58 45
14 FC Emmen 38 12 9 17 58:72 45
15 Vitesse 38 15 11 12 64:55 44
16 TOP Oss 38 11 11 16 54:64 44
17 Jong AZ Alkmaar 38 12 4 22 61:76 40
18 Helmond Sport 38 10 9 19 42:62 39
19 Maastricht 38 9 11 18 41:73 38
20 Jong Ajax 38 9 8 21 50:73 35
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)