Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Kooy W.
Assist: Agougil O.
14'
van de Pavert R.
21' Event
Ghaddari M.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax finished 6-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jong Utrecht.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Jong Utrecht
30%
Draws
29%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jong Utrecht

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Jong Utrecht haven't matched Jong Ajax's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Jong Utrecht taking it.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Jong Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong Utrecht Jong Ajax
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 7 4
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.59 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax
6:1
Apr 24, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht
0:2
Aug 25, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax
4:3
Feb 28, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax
1:2
Oct 18, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jong Utrecht Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghaddari M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Chigozie Owen E.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Pugno D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong Utrecht 83 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong Utrecht Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jong Utrecht Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong Ajax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Jong Utrecht scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Jong Utrecht remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jong Utrecht VS Jong Ajax
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong Utrecht

(Home)
18 Sept
Jong Utrecht
1 : 3
Venlo
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
NAC Breda
2 : 3
Jong Utrecht
07 Sept
Jong Utrecht
0 : 0
Eindhoven FC
31 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1
Jong Utrecht
Page 1 of 6

Jong Ajax

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 7 5 1 1 16:4 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
6 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
7 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
9 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
11 NAC Breda 7 3 1 3 13:15 10
12 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
13 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
14 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
18 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
19 Dordrecht 7 1 1 5 9:21 4
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 8:20 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)