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Juazeirense vs Serra Branca

Brazil Brazil

Serie D Estádio Adauto Moraes
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Juazeirense play Serra Branca in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Juazeirense averaged 1 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Serra Branca averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Juazeirense won 0, Serra Branca won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 28, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.76 for Juazeirense and 1.25 for Serra Branca. This points to a Serra Branca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Juazeirense
32%
Draws
43%
Serra Branca
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Juazeirense picked up more points recently compared to Serra Branca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.76 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Juazeirense Clean Sheet 19%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juazeirense Serra Branca
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.37 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Serie D
Juazeirense vs Serra Branca
0:1
Jun 21, 2026 Serie D
Serra Branca vs Juazeirense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juazeirense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Serra Branca Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juazeirense 26 / 100
Serra Branca 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juazeirense Serra Branca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Serra Branca or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Juazeirense attacking → ← attacking Serra Branca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juazeirense scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Serra Branca let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Juazeirense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Serra Branca lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 46
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63