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Julho Esporte vs Ferroviario-PI

Brazil Brazil

Piauiense 2023
Wed, Mar 8, 2023
3 - 0
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Julho Esporte play Ferroviario-PI in the Piauiense 2023. Julho Esporte are favorites here. Recently, Julho Esporte averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Ferroviario-PI averaged 0 goals scored and 3 conceded. In past meetings, Julho Esporte won 2, Ferroviario-PI won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 8, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Julho Esporte and 1.00 for Ferroviario-PI. This points to a Julho Esporte double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Julho Esporte
25%
Draws
15%
Ferroviario-PI
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Julho Esporte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Julho Esporte picked up more points recently compared to Ferroviario-PI.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Julho Esporte Clean Sheet 23%
Ferroviario-PI Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Julho Esporte Ferroviario-PI
Matches Played 33 14
Wins 9 0
Draws 10 0
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.03 0
Goals Conceded 1.27 3
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2023 Piauiense
Julho Esporte vs Ferroviario-PI
3:0
Feb 1, 2023 Piauiense
Ferroviario-PI vs Julho Esporte
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Julho Esporte 59 / 100
Ferroviario-PI 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Julho Esporte Ferroviario-PI

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Julho Esporte Win (1)
Secondary Pick Julho Esporte & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Julho Esporte attacking → ← attacking Ferroviario-PI

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Julho Esporte scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Ferroviario-PI let in goals in 50% of their last 14 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Julho Esporte went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ferroviario-PI lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 0
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1River-PI1494129:1131
2Fluminense-PI1494124:931
3AE Altos1474321:1025
4Parnahyba1448217:1120
5Julho Esporte1444614:1416
6Corisabba1444620:1813
7Comercial PI1450913:2312
8Ferroviario-PI1400140:420