Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Junior vs Alianza

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Junior play Alianza in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Junior averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Alianza averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Junior won 3, Alianza won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 6, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.12 for Junior and 1.19 for Alianza. This points to a Junior double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Junior
29%
Draws
25%
Alianza
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Junior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Junior picked up more points recently compared to Alianza.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.12 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Junior Clean Sheet 20%
Alianza Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Junior Alianza
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 5 10
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.45 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Junior
0:1
Apr 19, 2025 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
2:0
Aug 4, 2024 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
2:2
Feb 5, 2024 Primera A
Alianza vs Junior
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Junior Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrios C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alianza Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Junior 45 / 100
Alianza 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Junior Alianza

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Junior or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Junior attacking → ← attacking Alianza

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Junior scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Alianza let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Junior went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Alianza lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 34
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.14
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.86

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210