Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Jaime Morón León

Match Events

13'

Vegetti P.

45'

Martin A.

60'

Sub

Paiva G. In: Bacca C.

Out: Paiva G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Junior host Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores. Little to choose between these two on current form. Cerro Porteno have shipped 0.88 goals a game lately, while Junior have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Junior have won 2 to Cerro Porteno's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 8, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.25, favoring Cerro Porteno. Cerro Porteno in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Junior

44%

Draws

20%

Cerro Porteno

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Junior demonstrates higher offensive output (1.5 avg goals) than Cerro Porteno (1 avg goals).
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 44% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Copa Libertadores provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Junior Clean Sheet 19%

Cerro Porteno Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Junior	Cerro Porteno
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	15	15
Draws	5	7
Losses	10	8
Goals Scored	1.5	1
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Junior vs Cerro Porteno

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 0 - 0

0:1

Apr 14, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Cerro Porteno vs Junior

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

1:0

Sep 20, 2017 Copa Sudamericana

Junior vs Cerro Porteno

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 4 - 2

3:1

Sep 13, 2017 Copa Sudamericana

Cerro Porteno vs Junior

Possession: 60% - 42% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

Mar 15, 2000 Copa Libertadores

Junior vs Cerro Porteno

Possession: 49% - 41% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Junior Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Cerro Porteno Compare

Top Goalscorer Vegetti P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Junior 36 / 100

Cerro Porteno 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Junior Cerro Porteno

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Junior scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Cerro Porteno let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Junior went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Cerro Porteno lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Junior VS Cerro Porteno

1.5 Goals Scored 1

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	6	5	1	0	14:2	16
2	Estudiantes L.P.	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
3	Ind. Medellin	6	2	1	3	6:11	7
4	Cusco	6	0	1	5	4:12	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coquimbo	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7:6	8
3	Club Nacional	6	2	2	2	7:9	8
4	Universitario de Deportes	6	1	3	2	5:6	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ind. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	15:6	16
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Bolivar	6	1	2	3	6:8	5
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	0	3	3	6:13	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	U. Catolica	6	4	1	1	8:4	13
2	Cruzeiro	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Boca Juniors	6	2	1	3	6:5	7
4	Barcelona SC	6	1	0	5	2:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corinthians	6	3	2	1	8:4	11
2	Platense	6	3	1	2	8:7	10
3	Santa Fe	6	2	2	2	6:7	8
4	Penarol	6	0	3	3	4:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	6:2	13
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	10:5	11
3	Sporting Cristal	6	2	0	4	6:9	6
4	Junior	6	1	1	4	5:11	4

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	LDU Quito	6	4	2	8:5	12
2	Mirassol	6	4	2	7:4	12
3	Lanus	6	3	3	3:7	9
4	Always Ready	6	1	5	7:9	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11:6	13
2	Rosario Central	6	4	1	1	9:1	13
3	Universidad Central	6	3	0	3	7:11	9
4	Libertad Asuncion	6	0	0	6	4:13	0