Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Juticalpa vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Barrios O.
Own Goal
8'
Sacaza C.
18' Event
Sacaza C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Juticalpa and Marathon finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Juticalpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Juticalpa
15%
Draws
46%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Marathon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marathon are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Marathon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Juticalpa Clean Sheet 10%
Marathon Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juticalpa Marathon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.35
Goals Conceded 2.3 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Marathon
3:2
Mar 18, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Marathon
0:4
Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Juticalpa
3:0
Oct 4, 2025 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Marathon
1:3
Jul 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Juticalpa
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juticalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sacaza C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Padilla J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Argueta C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juticalpa 10 / 100
Marathon 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juticalpa Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Juticalpa found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Juticalpa stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Juticalpa VS Marathon
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Juticalpa

(Home)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
14 Sept
Atletico Independiente
2 : 1
Juticalpa
07 Sept
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Genesis FC
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)